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Trump Effect? Bitcoin Hits New High on Eve of US Election

Donald Trump Pledges to Fire SEC's Gensler, Make US 'Crypto Capital'


As the United States gears up for its presidential election, the cryptocurrency market is experiencing a surge, with Bitcoin leading the charge. The world's most popular digital currency has reached unprecedented heights, touching $69,470 on October 20, 2024. This remarkable ascent has left investors and analysts pondering: Is this the Trump effect on Bitcoin?


The Political Landscape and Crypto Sentiment


With just two weeks until Election Day, the crypto community is closely watching the political arena. Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, has been vocal about his pro-cryptocurrency stance, which has resonated with many investors. According to the prediction platform Polymarket, Trump currently leads Vice President Kamala Harris by a margin of 21%, with a winning probability of around 60%.


Augustine Fan, head of insights at SOFA.org, suggests that a Trump victory, coupled with a Republican sweep in Congress, could create favorable conditions for cryptocurrency regulations. This potential shift in policy has sparked optimism among Bitcoin enthusiasts.


Institutional Interest Drives Bitcoin's Rally


While political factors play a role, the surge in Bitcoin's price is also attributed to increased institutional interest. Bloomberg reports that nearly $2.4 billion flowed into Bitcoin spot ETFs over six days leading up to October 18. This influx of institutional money mirrors the pattern seen earlier in 2024 when Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $73,815 in March.


David Lawant, Head of Research at FalconX, notes that crypto has become a mainstream political issue, engaging a broader audience and increasing market focus as election day approaches.


Technical Indicators and Market Sentiment


Several technical indicators suggest that Bitcoin's bullish trend may continue:


1. The MACD histogram for Bitcoin's weekly charts has turned positive for the first time since April.

2. Bitcoin has broken through its downward trendline, hinting at sustained trading above the psychologically important $70,000 level.

3. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicates that while Bitcoin is in overbought territory, there's still room for growth.


Challenges and Risks Ahead


Despite the optimistic outlook, investors should remain cautious. The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility, and several factors could impact Bitcoin's trajectory:


1. Regulatory uncertainty: While a Trump presidency might favor crypto, increased scrutiny from regulators remains a possibility.

2. Market correction: After such a significant rally, a pullback could occur as investors take profits.

3. Global economic factors: Broader economic issues, including inflation and geopolitical tensions, could influence Bitcoin's performance.


Conclusion: A Pivotal Moment for Bitcoin


As the US election approaches and Bitcoin flirts with new all-time highs, the cryptocurrency market finds itself at a crossroads. Whether driven by the "Trump effect," institutional adoption, or a combination of factors, Bitcoin's recent performance has captured the attention of investors worldwide. As always, those considering entering the market should conduct thorough research and be prepared for the inherent risks of cryptocurrency investing.

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