What this winter's El Niño means, and what past ones actually did
Two separate questions, answered from two separate datasets. Above: what NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts for your part of the country this winter. Below: what the strongest El Niño winters since 1950 actually delivered nationally, which is history rather than forecast. They are deliberately not mixed.
The outlook where you are
NOAA CPC long-lead outlook issued 2026-08-20, forecaster Scott Handel. A tilt is a shift in the odds, not a prediction of what will happen.
How the signal moves through the season
| Region | Temperature | Precipitation | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Blank means CPC does not address that region for that season. It is not the same as equal chances.
What strong El Niño winters actually did
77 winters, 1949-50 to 2025-26, contiguous-US December–February. Move the threshold to change what counts as a strong El Niño winter. Highest ONI season from ASO of the preceding year through JFM.
| Winter | ONI peak | Mean temp | Temp rank | Precip | Precip rank |
|---|
Rank 1 = warmest or wettest of the 77 winters. Averages across the whole record: 33.17 °F and 6.8 in.
Sources: CPC long-lead outlook discussion · CPC ONI series via NOAA PSL · NOAA Climate at a Glance. Built from the same committed snapshots as the winter forecast article and the CPC outlook breakdown.