World Cup 2026 Quarter-Finals: The Contenders and Dark Horses Left

The 2026 World Cup is down to its final eight, and the title race has been blown wide open. Spain, France and England are the last genuine contenders — while Argentina, Switzerland, Morocco, Norway and Belgium make up a dangerous dark-horse pack. The holders Argentina survived a 2-0 scare to beat Egypt 3-2; Norway tore up the script, dumping out five-time champions Brazil. Here’s a rundown of the teams with a genuine chance of lifting the trophy on July 19, and the underdogs who could gatecrash the party. This is analysis and opinion, not betting advice.

Who are the favourites to win the World Cup 2026?

A clear top tier has separated itself, and statistical models point to one nation just ahead of the rest.

Spain are the team to beat on paper: the reigning European champions kept their sixth consecutive clean sheet against Portugal — a World Cup record — and their relentless possession game, orchestrated by Lamine Yamal, Pedri and Rodri, makes them the pick of the statistical models. A late Mikel Merino winner saw off Portugal, and Belgium await in the quarter-final on July 10. France, meanwhile, look every bit the powerhouse, with a frightening array of attackers led by Kylian Mbappé — whose penalty edged out Paraguay — and a clear ambition to reach a third consecutive final; a blockbuster quarter-final against Morocco comes first, on July 9. England boast arguably the deepest squad of all, and showed real grit to win 3-2 at Mexico’s Estadio Azteca despite going down to 10 men — a result that sets up a quarter-final against Norway on July 11. The holders Argentina came from 2-0 down against Egypt to stay alive, but these three lead the pre-tournament favourites left standing.

Which teams are the biggest dark horses?

Beyond the elite, several sides have the quality and momentum to make a deep run — and one has already pulled off the shock of the tournament.

The story of the round is Argentina. The holders looked dead and buried, 2-0 down to Egypt in Atlanta — Yasser Ibrahim heading in from a corner and Mostafa Zico adding a second — and with keeper Mostafa Shobeir saving a first-half penalty from Lionel Messi. But they roared back to win 3-2: Cristian Romero pulled one back on 79 minutes (set up by Messi), Messi himself equalised on 83 for his redemption, and Enzo Fernández lashed home a stoppage-time winner. Argentina march on to face Switzerland on July 11. The Swiss are the other fairy tale: a goalless slog past Colombia, settled 4-3 on penalties after Gregor Kobel’s shootout save, has taken them to their first quarter-final since 1954. Morocco, the surprise package of 2022 when they reached the semi-finals, kept that battle-hardened defensive core intact, dumped out the Netherlands on penalties and now face France on July 9, with Achraf Hakimi marauding from full-back. Norway delivered the tournament’s other giant-killing, beating five-time champions Brazil 2-1 behind an Erling Haaland brace to reach their first-ever quarter-final, where they meet England — fearless and explosive with Haaland, Antonio Nusa and Martin Ødegaard. And Belgium arrive on a roll, 18 games unbeaten after a ruthless 4-1 dismantling of co-hosts USA, with a Spain quarter-final the reward.

Who has already been knocked out?

Part of what makes this tournament so open is that some of the biggest names have already fallen. Egypt were the round’s heartbreak story: they led the holders Argentina 2-0 and had a Lionel Messi penalty saved, only to concede three times late and lose 3-2 — a cruel exit after coming so close to a first quarter-final. Portugal went out 1-0 to Spain to a stoppage-time Mikel Merino goal, in what was widely reported as Cristiano Ronaldo’s last World Cup. Co-hosts USA were beaten 4-1 by Belgium, and Colombia lost a penalty shootout to Switzerland. They join a growing casualty list: record five-time winners Brazil, whose 2-1 defeat to Norway was their earliest World Cup exit in 36 years; co-hosts Mexico, out 3-2 to England for their first-ever World Cup defeat at the Azteca; four-time winners Germany, who crashed out to Paraguay on penalties; and the exciting Netherlands, edged out by Morocco on spot-kicks. Canada and Paraguay completed the Round of 16 departures. Every shock like these tilts the bracket a little further open.

So who will actually win?

The honest answer is that it’s wide open. The data gives Spain a narrow edge, with France and England the other genuine contenders — but a five-week knockout tournament is ruthless, as Egypt and Brazil just found out, and this year’s bracket is fixed with no redraws, so paths are set in stone. History offers a useful reminder: when the smart money converges on a clear top group, a team from outside it ends up winning surprisingly often. The holders Argentina’s great escape, Morocco’s pedigree, Norway’s giant-killing streak and Switzerland’s fairy-tale run all mean an upset specialist could easily reach the final. Enjoy the chaos.

The bottom line

With the World Cup 2026 down to the last eight, Spain, France and England are the three teams most likely to win it all — but Argentina, Switzerland, Morocco, Norway and Belgium have the tools to shock them, and the holders Argentina showed their fight by coming from 2-0 down to sink Egypt. With the bracket fixed and the margins razor-thin, the next fortnight will be box-office. Keep up with every tie via our World Cup 2026 bracket and see who’s starring in our top players ranking. For tactical deep dives, read our recap of Argentina’s 3-2 comeback win over Egypt and our recap of England’s 3-2 win over Mexico.

This article is analysis and opinion, not betting advice. Team form and fixtures are as of July 8, 2026 and can change quickly.