Every one of the 48 teams at the 2026 FIFA World Cup has now played its opening match. That’s 24 games across 12 groups — one clean data point per nation — and it’s just enough to do the most fun thing in tournament football: rank everyone, worst to first. What follows is a power ranking from 48th to 1st, based on each team’s first match. It is a snapshot of form, not a measure of pedigree, so a debutant who frustrated a giant can outrank a superstar side that stumbled. At the end, we tackle the bigger question: who’s actually predicted to win the whole thing?

How we ranked them

Three things move a team up or down: the result, the performance behind it, and the strength of the opponent. Hammering the tournament’s weakest side counts for less than grinding out a draw against a contender. Punching above your weight is rewarded; flat, goalless displays from pre-tournament favourites are punished. Crucially, this is a one-match ranking — with the expanded 48-team format giving even slow starters a long runway, nobody’s tournament is defined yet.

48–41: The opening-weekend wreckage

48. Curacao — A historic debut for one of the smallest nations ever to qualify ended in a 7–1 hammering by Germany. Always likely to prop up the table; they duly did.

47. Tunisia — Shipped five to Sweden in a 5–1 defeat. The Carthage Eagles’ defence never settled.

46. Iraq — Competitive for half an hour, then overrun 4–1 by Erling Haaland’s Norway.

45. Paraguay — Conceded four to hosts the United States and trailed 3–0 at the break before losing 4–1.

44. Uzbekistan — A first-ever World Cup match ended in a 3–1 loss to Colombia, though they at least found the net.

43. Jordan — Outclassed 3–1 by a sharp Austria side on their big-stage bow.

42. Turkiye — Among the round’s bigger letdowns: blunt and beaten 2–0 by Australia.

41. South Africa — Bafana Bafana fell 2–0 to co-hosts Mexico in the tournament opener without ever threatening.

40–34: Beaten, but not buried

40. Algeria — No disgrace in losing 3–0 to Lionel Messi’s Argentina, but they were second best throughout.

39. Haiti — Lost only 1–0 to Scotland and competed gamely — a respectable showing from heavy underdogs.

38. Panama — Undone by a late Ghana goal in a 1–0 defeat they’ll feel they did enough to avoid.

37. Czechia — Pushed South Korea hard before going down 2–1.

36. Ecuador — A tight 1–0 loss to Ivory Coast; well organised, just short of a cutting edge.

35. Senegal — The pre-tournament dark horses lost 3–1, but they ran into the best team of the round in France. Don’t write them off.

34. Croatia — Beaten 4–2 by England, yet still the most watchable of the losers, scoring twice against a fancied opponent.

33–25: Big names who stumbled

This is where the ranking gets spicy. These are talented sides — several are genuine contenders — but Matchday 1 is about what happened on the day, and each of them underwhelmed.

33. Canada — The co-hosts were held 1–1 by Bosnia and Herzegovina and looked nervous on home soil.

32. Iran — Twice led and twice pegged back by New Zealand in a 2–2 they will regret.

31. Switzerland — A reliable tournament side started flat, drawing 1–1 with Qatar.

30. Uruguay — La Celeste’s 1–1 with Saudi Arabia was a missed chance to set an early tone.

29. Belgium — Another tepid major-nation draw, 1–1 with Egypt.

28. Portugal — Cristiano Ronaldo and company were held 1–1 by DR Congo: plenty of names, little fluency.

27. Spain — The pre-tournament co-favourites managed only a 0–0 against debutants Cabo Verde, the round’s biggest under-performance relative to expectation. The quality is undeniable; the start was not.

26. Netherlands — A 2–2 with Japan showcased the attack but exposed a leaky defence.

25. Brazil — A 1–1 draw with Morocco. The Seleção have the names, but looked ordinary against a well-drilled side.

24–13: Draws with a pulse, and the grinders

24. Bosnia and Herzegovina — Earned a creditable 1–1 away at co-hosts Canada.

23. DR Congo — Held Portugal 1–1 and more than belonged.

22. Saudi Arabia — A 1–1 with Uruguay continued their habit of troubling South American heavyweights.

21. Egypt — Mohamed Salah dragged them to a 1–1 with Belgium.

20. Qatar — The 2022 hosts stunned Switzerland with a 1–1 draw — one of the better underdog points of the round.

19. New Zealand — A spirited 2–2 with Iran; the All Whites announced themselves.

18. Cabo Verde — A goalless draw with Spain is arguably the result of the round, for a debutant nation of around half a million people.

17. Japan — Came from behind twice to draw 2–2 with the Netherlands; fearless as ever.

16. Morocco — The 2022 semi-finalists looked the part again, holding Brazil 1–1 and arguably deserving more.

15. Ghana — A narrow 1–0 over Panama. Not pretty, but three points banked.

14. Scotland — Ground out a 1–0 win over Haiti for a precious opening victory.

13. Ivory Coast — A disciplined 1–0 over Ecuador; quietly, ruthlessly efficient.

12–5: The contenders’ chasing pack

12. South Korea — A 2–1 win over Czechia; Son Heung-min and company started with intent.

11. Australia — A clean, convincing 2–0 over a fancied Turkiye side.

10. Austria — Brushed Jordan aside 3–1 with room to spare.

9. Mexico — The co-hosts opened the tournament with a controlled 2–0 over South Africa in front of a roaring home crowd.

8. Colombia — A polished 3–1 win over Uzbekistan, the attack flowing freely.

7. Sweden — Five goals past Tunisia (5–1) made an emphatic early statement.

6. Norway — Back on the biggest stage, Haaland’s Norway dismantled Iraq 4–1.

5. United States — The host nation’s 4–1 demolition of Paraguay — 3–0 up at half-time — was the most emphatic opener of any home team in the tournament.

The top 4: who actually looked the part

4. Germany — Seven goals is seven goals (7–1 v Curacao). The only thing keeping them off the podium is the opponent: it came against the field’s weakest side.

3. England — A 4–2 win over a serious opponent in Croatia, Harry Kane scoring twice with Jude Bellingham and Marcus Rashford also on target. Real attacking verve — and a couple of defensive question marks to fix.

2. Argentina — The reigning champions looked every inch it as Lionel Messi struck a hat-trick in a 3–0 win over Algeria. Ominously composed.

1. France — The most complete performance against the strongest opponent any contender faced. Les Bleus beat a dangerous Senegal 3–1 and, fittingly, walked away from Matchday 1 as the bookmakers’ new outright favourite.

So who is predicted to win the World Cup 2026?

The betting market did its own reshuffle after Matchday 1. France’s statement win pushed them clear at the top of the futures board, while Spain’s goalless stumble cost them ground.

As of June 20, France are the solo favourites at around +370 (roughly a 21% implied chance), ahead of Spain (+550), England (+600), Argentina (+800), Portugal (+1000), Brazil (+1100) and Germany (+1300).

Our pick: France. They beat the toughest opponent any title contender faced on Matchday 1, they carry arguably the deepest squad in the tournament, and they did it while both of their nearest rivals wobbled — Spain blanked by Cabo Verde, England leaking two goals to Croatia. When form, squad depth and the opening result all point the same way, that’s a pick you can stand behind.

The chasing pack is dangerous, though. Argentina look like champions again with Messi firing; England have the firepower to outscore anyone if the defence tightens; and Spain have far too much class for one flat afternoon to define them. For dark horses, keep an eye on Germany, whose seven-goal opener hinted at a high ceiling, on Morocco, who continue to play above their seeding, and on the United States, riding genuine momentum and a home crowd.

One honest caveat: this is one match out of a minimum of seven on the road to the final. The 48-team format is forgiving — slow-starting heavyweights like Spain, Brazil and Portugal have plenty of time to recover. Treat the odds as context for how the tournament is breaking, not as investment advice.

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite to win the World Cup 2026? France, who became the outright favourite (around +370) after a 3–1 win over Senegal on Matchday 1, ahead of Spain and England.

Which team looked best on Matchday 1? France’s 3–1 defeat of Senegal earns our number-one spot for combining a strong result with the strongest opponent any contender faced.

What was the biggest result of the round? Germany’s 7–1 demolition of debutants Curacao, the heaviest scoreline of Matchday 1.

What was the biggest shock? Spain, pre-tournament co-favourites, being held to a 0–0 by debutants Cabo Verde.

Has any team been eliminated yet? No. After one match, no team is mathematically out — and with the eight best third-placed teams advancing, even an opening loss is survivable.

When do the knockouts begin? After the group stage, the tournament moves into a new Round of 32, then the Round of 16, quarter-finals, semi-finals and final.