Who Will Win Wimbledon 2026? The Numbers Behind the Men's and Women's Favourites

Wimbledon 2026 begins on Monday, June 29 at the All England Club, and the numbers point in two very different directions. On the men’s side, with two-time champion Carlos Alcaraz out with a wrist injury, world No. 1 Jannik Sinner is a runaway favourite at around -175 on the back of a 37-3 season — though Novak Djokovic’s astonishing 102-13 career record on these courts keeps him second despite being ranked eighth. The women’s draw, by contrast, is the most open in years: Aryna Sabalenka leads at around +350 but has lost three straight Wimbledon semi-finals, leaving Elena Rybakina, Iga Świątek, Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff all genuinely live. And looming over everything is the story of the fortnight — 44-year-old Serena Williams, back on a wildcard. Here’s what the data actually says about who lifts the trophies on July 12.

When is Wimbledon 2026, and who’s the favourite?

The Championships run from Monday, June 29 to Sunday, July 12, 2026, with the draw confirmed on June 26 and the weather forecast unusually hot for the opening week. The single biggest factor shaping the men’s draw is the absence of Carlos Alcaraz, who withdrew with a lingering right-wrist injury that also cost him the entire clay and grass season; he’s targeting the US hard-court swing instead. That leaves Jannik Sinner the overwhelming men’s favourite and Aryna Sabalenka on top of a wide-open women’s field.

Who will win the men’s title? The numbers

This is the more predictable of the two draws. Jannik Sinner arrives as the defending champion and world No. 1 with a 2026 record of 37-3, including a 30-match winning streak and five Masters 1000 titles. His Wimbledon career record stands at 20-4, and last year he beat Djokovic in the semis and Alcaraz in the final. The one blemish is a surprise early exit at the French Open, but a month’s rest since then arguably helps more than it hurts on the quick grass.

The fascinating case is Novak Djokovic. He’s ranked only eighth, but bookmakers make him a clear second favourite because of a freakish 102-13 career record at Wimbledon and seven titles — and because, for over a decade, the only players to beat him here have been Alcaraz and Sinner. At 39, chasing a record-tying eighth Wimbledon crown and a standalone 25th major, this may be his clearest opening in years now that Alcaraz is out.

After those two, the odds fall away fast. Alexander Zverev is the world No. 3 and a freshly minted French Open champion, but his grass history is poor — he’s never been past the fourth round at Wimbledon and lost in the first round last year. Ben Shelton (a career-high No. 5) and Taylor Fritz (a 2025 semi-finalist) both bring real grass form, with Shelton having just won his maiden grass title at Stuttgart, but they’re long shots by comparison.

Who will win the women’s title? The most open draw in years

Here the numbers tell a completely different story — there is no dominant favourite. Aryna Sabalenka is world No. 1 and the betting favourite at around +350, and the grass-court analytics like her: she tops the Elo ratings and has a perfect record in grass-court tiebreaks over the past year. But the asterisks are huge. She has never reached a Wimbledon final despite three semi-final appearances, and she’s been wobbling — just 7-4 in her last 11 matches, including 6-0 final-set collapses at both the French Open and the Berlin grass event.

Her main rivals all arrive with their own questions. Elena Rybakina, the 2022 Wimbledon champion, won the Australian Open this year and has arguably the biggest grass-friendly serve in the field, but she’s lost four of her last six and is just 1-2 on grass in 2026. Iga Świątek is the defending champion, but grass is her weakest surface, she’s been inconsistent at 21-10, and she lost the opening match of her only grass tune-up. Jessica Pegula is quietly dangerous — her flat, low strokes suit grass, she beat Sabalenka on grass in Berlin, and she has arguably the easiest route to the semis. Coco Gauff has the talent but has never been past the fourth round here. And Mirra Andreeva, the 19-year-old French Open champion, is full of confidence but has played just one match on grass.

Implied chances are derived from betting odds and reflect the market’s view, not a guarantee; because the odds include the bookmaker’s margin, the figures don’t add up to 100%. Odds vary between sportsbooks.

Can Serena Williams actually make a run?

The story of the tournament has nothing to do with seeds. Serena Williams, 44, accepted a wildcard into the singles draw — her first Grand Slam singles appearance since the 2022 US Open — and she’ll reunite with sister Venus in the doubles. A seven-time Wimbledon champion chasing a record-tying 24th major, she opens against Australia’s Maya Joint (ranked around No. 53) and is a long shot at odds beyond 30-1. Realistically, the numbers say a deep run is very unlikely after a four-year absence: even if she wins her opener, her quarter is stacked with in-form players. But for one match at least, the most decorated player of the modern era is back on Centre Court, and that’s the headline regardless of the result.

So who wins Wimbledon 2026?

On the men’s side, the rational pick is Jannik Sinner. The form, the ranking, the draw and the absence of his only real grass rival all line up — and the only number working against him is Djokovic’s once-in-a-generation Wimbledon record, which makes the Serb the romantic pick if age finally stops catching up with him. Expect those two to be the names left standing, with Sinner the favourite to retain his crown.

The women’s title is genuinely up for grabs, and that’s the honest answer. The market and the grass analytics point to Sabalenka as the on-paper choice, but a player who has never reached the final and keeps losing deciding sets is a vulnerable favourite. If you prefer form and fit over reputation, Pegula and Rybakina are the most grass-suited of the contenders, and a wide-open draw is exactly the kind of event where the defending champion Świątek or a fearless Andreeva can catch fire. Our lean: Sabalenka still has the highest floor, but don’t be surprised if a different name lifts the Venus Rosewater Dish.

The bottom line

Wimbledon 2026 splits cleanly: a top-heavy men’s draw where Sinner is the clear favourite and Djokovic the dangerous veteran, and a wide-open women’s draw where Sabalenka leads a tight pack of five or six genuine contenders. Add the emotional pull of Serena Williams’ return, two weeks of unusually warm weather, and a fortnight that runs to July 12, and there’s plenty to follow. The numbers favour Sinner and Sabalenka — but only one of those two looks anywhere close to a safe bet.

This is a data-driven preview and analysis, not betting advice. Odds, rankings and form are accurate as of the start of the tournament and will change as matches are played; check current sources before relying on any figure.