Texans vs Colts Prediction: Two 0–2 Teams, Two Thin Receiver Rooms, and Who Catches the Ball

We pick the Texans to win 23–20 at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday 27 September. Both teams are 0–2 and both are short of receivers. The difference is that Houston’s shorthanded offense still gained 374 yards last week, and on Sunday it faces a Colts defense that has allowed 1,029 yards in two games.

When is Texans vs Colts and what channel is it on?

Texans vs Colts kicks off at 1:00 PM ET (10:00 AM PT) on Sunday 27 September 2026 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. It is on CBS. The Colts are at home, and it is Houston’s first road game of the season.

The Texans’ how-to-watch page says “NFL Network and CBS”. The same line appears on the team’s Week 1 and Week 2 pages, and ESPN, colts.com and the Texans’ own schedule data all list CBS alone. We treat the NFL Network mention as template text. Yahoo Sports and Colts Wire reported on 22 September that Tom McCarthy, Robert Turbin and Tiffany Blackmon will call the game. We did not see a CBS announcement.

How have the Texans and Colts played so far?

Both teams have lost twice. Houston lost both of its home games, 36–31 to Buffalo and 20–6 to Cincinnati. Indianapolis lost 41–23 at home to Baltimore and 33–30 in overtime at Kansas City. All four games were on Sundays, and the Colts’ loss at Arrowhead was the Sunday night game.

Houston lost to Buffalo late. Fairbairn’s 58-yard field goal put the Texans ahead 31–30 with 6:44 left, and Josh Allen’s 34-yard touchdown pass to Joshua Palmer with 1:36 left won it. C.J. Stroud’s two lost fumbles were the game’s only turnovers. Against Cincinnati, Houston outgained the Bengals 374 yards to 267 and had 22 first downs to their 12. Then it went 0 for 4 in the red zone and 0 for 4 on fourth down. Its running backs gained 18 yards on 14 carries. The defense sacked Joe Burrow five times.

Indianapolis trailed Baltimore 28–6 in the second quarter and gave up 506 yards, 144 of them and three touchdowns to Derrick Henry. At Kansas City, Jonathan Taylor’s 5-yard touchdown with 5:37 left tied the game 27–27. Butker and Shrader traded overtime field goals, and then Butker’s 40-yarder won it as time expired. It was the Colts’ second straight overtime loss at Arrowhead, after a 23–20 loss there on 23 November 2025. It was also their ninth straight regular-season loss since they beat Atlanta on 9 November 2025.

Who catches the ball for the Texans and Colts on Sunday?

Probably not either team’s best receiver. Houston’s Nico Collins is reported unlikely to play because of a hamstring injury, and Tank Dell and Jayden Higgins are unavailable, so tight end Dalton Schultz becomes the focal point. Indianapolis is reported to be without Alec Pierce for several weeks and has added Darius Slayton. That leaves more of the load to Josh Downs, tight end Tyler Warren and Jonathan Taylor.

Houston: Schultz and a long list

Collins caught 7 of 10 targets for 75 yards and a touchdown against Buffalo, a game in which Houston scored touchdowns on 4 of 5 red-zone trips. He hurt his hamstring at practice on Wednesday 16 September and was inactive against Cincinnati. Without him, Stroud threw 55 passes for 353 yards and no touchdowns. Schultz caught 12 of 14 targets for 140 yards, and no other Houston player had more than 37 receiving yards. The other targets went to Hutchinson (9), Wayne (7), Marks (6), Boutte and Noel (5 each), and Moreau and Montgomery (2 each).

Higgins tore his ACL in practice on 19 August and is out for the season. Dell is on injured reserve and cannot return before Week 5.

Indianapolis: Pierce out, Slayton in

ESPN reported that Pierce signed a four-year, $114 million contract in March and had a heel and ankle procedure the same month. At Kansas City he caught one pass for 11 yards and was carted off early in the second quarter with a left heel injury. On Monday 21 September, NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported that Pierce will rehab rather than have surgery and is expected to miss several weeks. ESPN reported the same timeline on 22 September, with the hope of a midseason return and a likely move to injured reserve. Neither is a team announcement.

The Colts agreed to terms with Slayton, a free agent, on Monday night, according to ESPN and NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero, and ESPN’s depth chart already lists him. After Pierce left at Arrowhead, Downs caught 7 passes for 72 yards and Treadwell caught 3 for 61. Warren caught Daniel Jones’s 1-yard touchdown.

Why the receivers tilt it toward Houston

This is our reading, not a measured effect. Houston’s passing game has already played a full game without Collins and still moved the ball. Its problem was finishing drives. On Sunday it faces a defense that let Lamar Jackson throw for 324 yards and Patrick Mahomes for 382, and that has allowed touchdowns on 6 of 9 red-zone trips. That defense may also be without cornerback Charvarius Ward, who left the Kansas City game with groin discomfort. The Colts’ passing game has produced 166 and 210 yards. It now has to replace a receiver the team paid $114 million in March, against a Houston front with seven sacks, with help from a receiver who signed on Monday.

Who is injured for Texans vs Colts?

No player has an official Week 3 status yet. The first practice reports for Sunday games come out on Wednesday 23 September, game designations follow on Friday 25 September, and inactives are named about 90 minutes before kickoff. What exists now are Week 2 inactive lists, injured-reserve moves and news reports. The tables below give the source for each item.

The “Questionable” and “Doubtful” labels on ESPN’s injury tracker are ESPN’s own estimates, not team designations. ESPN’s pages also disagree with each other: one lists Collins as “Out” and another as “Questionable”.

Texans

Colts

The Collins report rests on one reporter. Wilson, citing a source, described a Grade 1 hamstring strain. On 21 September he reported that Collins is “not currently expected to play vs. Colts”, after reporting on 19 September that Collins might miss two games. The outlets repeating Wilson do not independently confirm it. Ian Rapoport and Adam Schefter both described the injury as minor on 18 September, and DeMeco Ryans gave no update on Monday. Treat Collins as reported out, not confirmed out.

Both starting quarterbacks, Stroud and Jones, have started both games, and no injury has been reported for either. Jones is back from the right Achilles tear he suffered on 7 December 2025.

What uniform are the Colts wearing against the Texans?

The Colts will wear their new “Anvil Strike” Rivalries uniform: a dark anthracite jersey and a high-shine metallic blue helmet with an INDY wordmark on the front, according to colts.com. It is the first time any of the eight new 2026 Rivalries uniforms will be worn in a game.

The horseshoe is built into the jersey design for the first time in team history, and “For The Shoe” is printed inside. The team has not described the pants or the facemask, and Houston has not said what it will wear. The Texans’ own Rivalries uniform debuts in Week 11, at home against Indianapolis. Our guide to the 2026 NFL Rivalries jerseys lists every team and week. We do not think a uniform changes a football game.

What is the Texans vs Colts head-to-head record?

Houston has won the last five meetings and the last four at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Colts still lead the all-time series 33–15–1 including one playoff win, or 32–15–1 in the regular season, according to Wikipedia, StatMuse and champsorchumps.us. We could not check that record against Pro Football Reference.

The Colts’ last home win against Houston was 31–3 on 17 October 2021. The most recent meeting tells us little. Riley Leonard started at quarterback for Indianapolis because Jones was injured, and Davis Mills also played for Houston, so Stroud’s 14 of 23 for 169 yards is not a full-game line.

Does weather matter for Texans vs Colts?

Probably not. Lucas Oil Stadium has a retractable roof, and no decision on opening it had been announced as of 22 September. If it opens, the National Weather Service forecast issued at 2:26 PM EDT on 22 September calls for Sunday to be partly sunny with a high near 73°F, with no precipitation mentioned. That is a 5-day forecast and can change.

What is our Texans vs Colts prediction?

Texans 23, Colts 20. That is Drawpie’s judgement, argued from box scores, injury reports and the series record. It is not a model output and not a betting line.

The case for Houston:

• Houston has allowed 676 yards and 171 rushing yards in two games. Indianapolis has allowed 1,029 and 354. It is the largest gap in the numbers, and it showed up in both of the Colts’ games.
• Houston gained 381 and 374 yards, the second total without Collins. Against Cincinnati it failed to finish drives, and the Colts have allowed touchdowns on 6 of 9 red-zone trips.
• Houston has seven sacks. It faces a Colts passing game that has produced 166 and 210 yards and has just lost Pierce.
• Houston has won five straight in the series, and its last four games in Indianapolis, going back to January 2023.

Why it stays close:

• Taylor has 190 yards and four touchdowns on 43 carries, and the Colts have scored touchdowns on 5 of 6 red-zone trips.
• Houston has not forced a turnover this season.
• Jones was not sacked at Arrowhead, and the Colts scored 30 points there.
• This is Houston’s first road game, and its running backs gained 18 yards on 14 carries last week.

The three-point margin reflects our expectation that Houston kicks more field goals than it would like, while the Colts score touchdowns when they get close. For context, Houston started 0–3 last season and finished 12–5.

What would make this prediction wrong?

The most likely way is that Houston’s red-zone problem continues. An offense that went 0 for 4 inside the 20 against Cincinnati will lose a game like this if it keeps trading field goals for Colts touchdowns. The other risks:

• Taylor controls the game on the ground against a Houston front that was without Clowney last week and has To’oTo’o on injured reserve.
• Houston’s takeaway count stays at zero while the Colts, minus 2 in turnover margin so far, play clean.
• If Ingram is confirmed out at guard, Stroud’s protection gets worse. He has already been sacked seven times.
• The Colts’ yardage allowed turns out to be a Baltimore and Kansas City problem that shrinks against a Houston offense without Collins.
• Slayton, Downs and Warren give Jones enough that Pierce’s absence barely shows.

If Collins is cleared this week, the pick does not flip. It would mean we have underrated Houston’s offense.

What to check before kickoff

• Wednesday 23 September: the first practice reports, especially whether Collins practices at all.
• Friday 25 September: game designations for Collins, Ingram, Clowney, Ward and Clemons, and whether the Colts move Pierce to injured reserve.
• Whether Slayton appears on the Colts’ roster and practice reports.
• The roof decision at Lucas Oil Stadium.
• Inactive lists, about 90 minutes before kickoff (11:30 AM ET).