Super El Niño November 2026 Forecast: What NOAA's Outlook Says, Region by Region

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has a November 2026 outlook, issued Oct. 15, that favors a warmer-than-normal November across the northern two-thirds of the contiguous US and along both coasts. It also favors a wetter-than-normal month across much of the South and up the East Coast, with the strongest wet signal (a 60% to 70% chance of above-normal precipitation) along the Gulf Coast and Southeast. Drier-than-normal odds cover the northern Intermountain West into parts of the Northern Plains, and parts of the Great Lakes. These are probabilities for the month as a whole, not a daily forecast. CPC says it will issue an updated November outlook on Saturday, Oct. 31, 2026.

Everything below was read on Friday, Oct. 30, 2026, up to 18:20 UTC (2:20 p.m. EDT), while the Oct. 15 issue was still CPC’s current November outlook. The probabilities belong to CPC, the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) and Columbia University’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI). None of them are ours.

Is this really a “super” El Niño?

“Super” is a popular nickname, not an official NOAA category. CPC’s strength tiers top out at “very strong”. IRI defines very strong as a Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly of at least +2.0°C and says its classification is capped there. The nickname has no fixed definition, so IRI’s very strong threshold is the nearest official yardstick.

Whether 2026 clears that mark depends on which index you read:

• CPC’s lead index says strong, for now. The Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) was +1.7°C for July-September 2026, below the +2.0°C mark.
• Traditional measures are already past +2.0°C. They are listed in the table in the next section.
• CPC expects the event to get stronger. Its Oct. 8 ENSO diagnostic discussion keeps an El Niño Advisory in force and says El Niño “continues to strengthen”. CPC says a strong-to-very strong El Niño is likely through January-March 2027 (“remaining greater than an 83% chance”).
• CPC also has a “historic” tier. It defines a historic event as one stronger than every El Niño since 1950, at +2.5°C or more on the three-month RONI. On Oct. 8 it put the chance of that at 54% for September-November, 83% for October-December and 70% for November-January.

Those percentages describe the ocean index, not the weather. A stronger event makes typical El Niño impacts more likely, but CPC itself says they are “not guaranteed”. It points readers to its monthly and seasonal outlooks for the weather probabilities.

How strong is El Niño right now, by the numbers?

Measured in the Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific, the current figures range from +1.7°C to +3.4°C, depending on the index and the time period. There are two reasons the numbers differ:

• Relative versus traditional. CPC’s relative indices subtract the average warming of the whole tropical ocean (20°S to 20°N) from the Niño-3.4 reading. In a year when the tropics are warm overall, they come out lower than the traditional numbers.
• Weekly versus three-month. Three-month averages smooth out, and lag behind, the weekly snapshots.

In the table, “Index” names the measure and who publishes it, “Value” is the Niño-3.4 anomaly, and “Period” is the time it covers. The two CPC weekly rows are the same week in CPC’s weekly data, so the 0.9°C gap between them comes entirely from the relative adjustment.

Two caveats go with these figures:

• BoM’s +2.88°C is a record only within its weekly dataset, which begins in 2008. In its Oct. 27 update, BoM says historical comparisons rely on its longer monthly relative dataset, where values are still below previous records. BoM adds that all the models it surveys forecast the warming to peak around November or December. It also says relative Niño-3.4 values are forecast to exceed the highest levels seen since reliable records began in 1950.
• IRI’s mid-October model plume is a forecast, not an observation. In its Oct. 19 Quick Look, IRI reports that all 27 models it tracks forecast a “very strong” El Niño from October-December 2026 through December-February.

How should I read “a 50% to 60% chance of above normal”?

CPC’s outlooks split each month into three equally likely categories (above normal, near normal and below normal), so a tilt toward one category is a shift in the odds, not a forecast amount. “Normal” means the 1991-2020 average for the month.

With no information, each category would have a one-in-three chance. A region shaded “50% to 60% above normal” therefore has odds tilted clearly toward warmth, but a near-normal or cooler-than-normal November is still possible there.

“Equal Chances” (EC) does not mean a normal month. It means CPC’s tools gave no clear tilt, so each of the three outcomes keeps its one-in-three chance.

CPC’s map shading also has a rule worth knowing. Each band’s label is its lower bound: the band marked 50 covers 50% to 60%, and the band marked 60 covers 60% to 70%.

What does NOAA’s November 2026 outlook say about temperatures?

CPC favors a warmer-than-normal November across the northern two-thirds of the contiguous US and along both coasts. Its Oct. 15 discussion says “models and tools favor a warmer northern tier”. By region, according to CPC’s text and map files:

• Washington and the interior Northwest: CPC’s highest odds, 50% to 60% above normal.
• Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes: also among the highest, 50% to 60% above normal. CPC says the odds are weaker over Montana and North Dakota, “where diving troughs may introduce cooler spells”.
• Oregon and the West Coast: CPC damps the odds over Oregon because nearby sea surface temperatures there are near normal. Warmer water to the south keeps a tilt toward above normal along the West Coast.
• The broad northern swath and the Northeast: 40% to 50% above normal across much of the northern and central US. CPC says disagreement between models lowers confidence over New England.
• Southern Florida peninsula (roughly Melbourne and Sarasota southward): 40% to 50% above normal. North and central Florida lean only slightly above normal, in the 33% to 40% band.
• Southwest to the Lower Mississippi Valley, including parts of the Central Plains and Intermountain West: Equal Chances. CPC notes that El Niño “typically supports below-normal temperatures over the Southern Plains and Southwest”. It says inconsistent model signals on where and how strong any cool area would be led it to choose EC instead.
• Alaska: above normal is favored across the east, the southeast Mainland and Southeast Alaska. CPC calls model agreement “very good” over much of eastern Alaska. The west is near normal along part of the coast and EC elsewhere.
• Hawaii: CPC’s November map files show Equal Chances for temperature.

Where does NOAA favor a wet or dry November?

CPC favors above-normal precipitation across much of the southern US and the East Coast, with the strongest odds of the whole outlook over the Southeast. CPC calls model agreement there “exceptionally high”. By region:

• Gulf Coast and Southeast (roughly from southeast Louisiana along the Gulf Coast to coastal Georgia and across north and central Florida): 60% to 70% above normal. CPC says multi-model ensembles show chances above 70% in isolated spots.
• Wider Southeast, from East Texas to the Carolinas, plus part of southern Florida: 50% to 60% above normal.
• Rest of the southern tier, including Southern California and the Southwest, and up the East Coast: a weaker wet tilt, 33% to 50% above normal, fading toward New England.
• New England: Equal Chances, because the models spread further apart there.
• Central Plains and the West Coast from about central California northward, including the Pacific Northwest coast: Equal Chances. CPC cites disagreement over the “northward extent” of the wet pattern, which it says is “difficult to pinpoint at this lead time”.
• Northern Intermountain West into parts of the Northern Plains: below normal favored, peaking at 40% to 50% over northern Idaho and western Montana. CPC says this dry signal is consistent and fits El Niño.
• Parts of the Great Lakes: below normal favored, 40% to 50% in the area from Lower Michigan toward western New York. CPC notes that some models, such as CFSv2, push this dry signal farther south toward the Gulf States.
• Alaska: a weak tilt toward below normal over the southwestern Mainland and parts of the Aleutians, higher above-normal chances along the northern coast, and EC elsewhere.
• Hawaii: CPC’s November map files show Equal Chances for precipitation.

Why is November a transition month for El Niño impacts?

CPC says November can still be a transition month, with El Niño’s influence on US weather strengthening through the winter months. Its Oct. 15 discussion puts it this way: although El Niño is forecast to strengthen, “November can still be a transition month for ENSO impacts for some regions, with teleconnections strengthening through the winter months”.

CPC applies that reasoning directly to Alaska precipitation, where it favors EC partly because of “November’s status as an ENSO transition month” before El Niño’s usual dry pattern there becomes more common later in winter. The Southern Plains and Southwest temperature EC has a different stated reason: CPC says the models disagree on where and how strong any cool area would be.

CPC still expects El Niño to be November’s main driver. Its discussion says El Niño is “expected to be the dominant climate driver”, overshadowing the Madden-Julian Oscillation, a tropical pattern that can sway the weather over a few weeks.

The fuller pattern shows up in NOAA’s longer outlooks, also issued Oct. 15:

• November-January: CPC favors a warm northern tier and western third of the country, with the best wet odds over the Southeast and Florida.
• December-February: NOAA’s Winter Outlook favors a warmer northern US and a wetter southern US from California to Florida and along the Eastern Seaboard.

National Weather Service director Ken Graham said a very strong El Niño will likely shift the jet stream south and east, “which tilts the odds toward stormier weather across the South”.

For the full winter picture, see our El Niño winter 2026-27 outlook explainer and our 2026-2027 winter forecast . Both cover the whole winter and carry figures from September.

What does CPC show for the first two weeks of November?

CPC’s 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks issued 3:00 p.m. EDT Thursday, Oct. 29, favor warmth across the East for Nov. 4-8 and above-normal temperatures over most of the contiguous US for Nov. 6-12. CPC calls these extended-range outlooks. In that issue:

• Nov. 4-8 (6-10 day): CPC puts the odds of above-normal temperatures above 70% from the Mid-Atlantic and southern Northeast northwest to the Great Lakes. It gives better than a 60% chance of above-normal precipitation from the Tennessee Valley into the Southeast, the southern Appalachians and the Mississippi Valley, tied to a strong low-pressure system over the Mississippi Valley early in the period.
• Nov. 6-12 (8-14 day): above-normal temperatures are favored over most of the contiguous US, with the highest odds (over 60%) in the north-central states. Confidence is lowest across much of the East and parts of the Southwest and Southern High Plains, where the odds of above normal are under 40%.

CPC reissues these outlooks every afternoon between 3 p.m. and 4 p.m. Eastern Time. FOX Weather reported on Oct. 29 that a major cross-country storm would bring flooding rain and snow to over 35 states through Halloween and Election Day on Nov. 3. For local timing and amounts, your National Weather Service forecast office is the official source.

What about the polar vortex stories?

Several outlets reported in late October that models show the stratospheric polar vortex weakening unusually early, but CPC’s monthly outlook gives temperature and precipitation odds, not a polar vortex forecast. FOX Weather, USA Today, The Weather Channel and Severe Weather Europe all ran pieces in late October on an unusually early weakening of the polar vortex. Some, such as Severe Weather Europe and FOX Weather, described it as potentially the earliest on record.

The Weather Network, writing Oct. 25, gave the more cautious version:

• A full reversal of the vortex winds, known as a sudden stratospheric warming, was “not a given” and still unlikely, and the models had not settled.
• The same pattern that disrupts the vortex can also bring colder weather at the same time, so not every cold spell is tied to a vortex disruption. A disruption does not guarantee cold in any given place: the colder air could slide into Europe or Asia instead.
• November has a smaller supply of Arctic cold than January and February, so a midwinter disruption matters more.

CPC’s Oct. 15 November outlook, the official product for the month, names El Niño as the dominant driver. CPC’s daily 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks and its Oct. 31 monthly update are the official NOAA products to check. The Oct. 29 extended-range outlook favored warmth across the East for Nov. 4-8.

Does NOAA forecast November snow or holiday weather?

No: NOAA’s monthly and seasonal outlooks do not forecast snowfall. NOAA’s Oct. 15 Winter Outlook release says the outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations, because snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.

Nothing NOAA has published at this range says what a single day will bring, Thanksgiving on Nov. 26 included. Maps that promise snow totals or holiday weather this far ahead do not come from NOAA’s outlooks.

When does NOAA update the outlook next?

The next change is CPC’s updated November outlook, which CPC says it will issue on Saturday, Oct. 31, 2026. The rest of the schedule:

• Daily: the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks, issued between 3 p.m. and 4 p.m. Eastern Time.
• Weekly: CPC’s ENSO slides with the latest weekly Niño-3.4 values. The most recent set we read was dated Monday, Oct. 26.
• Thursday, Nov. 12, 2026: CPC’s next ENSO diagnostic discussion, with updated advisory status and strength probabilities.
• Thursday, Nov. 19, 2026: CPC’s next long-lead release, including the December monthly outlook and the December-February seasonal outlook. NOAA’s Winter Outlook release also names Nov. 19 as the next update.

Sources

• NOAA CPC: 30-day outlook discussion for November 2026 (issued Oct. 15)
• NOAA CPC: Updated 30-day outlook discussion
• NOAA CPC: Outlook GIS files (November 2026 KML, seaskmls_202610)
• NOAA CPC: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (Oct. 8, 2026)
• NOAA CPC: ENSO recent evolution, current status and predictions (Oct. 26, 2026)
• NOAA CPC: RONI data
• NOAA CPC: ONI data
• NOAA CPC: Weekly relative Niño SST data
• NOAA CPC: Weekly Niño SST data
• NOAA CPC: 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook discussion
• NOAA CPC: 90-day outlook discussion (Oct. 15, 2026)
• NOAA CPC: Long-lead forecast release schedule for 2026
• Bureau of Meteorology: Climate Driver Update, ENSO (Oct. 27, 2026)
• IRI: October 2026 Quick Look
• NOAA: El Nino looms large over U.S. Winter Outlook (Oct. 15, 2026)
• The Weather Network: Canada’s polar vortex wild card is waking up much earlier than expected (Oct. 25, 2026)