Patriots vs Jaguars Prediction: New England's Defense Has Allowed 16 Points. Drake Maye Has Thrown Four Interceptions.
- The Patriots play the Jaguars at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 1:00 PM ET, on CBS. The stadium is being rebuilt and holds 42,507 this season.
- New England’s defense has allowed 16 points in two games, but Drake Maye has thrown four interceptions and the Patriots are minus-3 in turnovers.
- The Patriots’ offense has two touchdowns in two games and is now without right guard Mike Onwenu, hurt on 20 September, and A.J. Brown, on injured reserve until Week 6 at the earliest.
- Jacksonville has turned the ball over once. Trevor Lawrence has four touchdown passes and one interception.
- Our pick is Jaguars 20, Patriots 17. It is the site’s judgement from box scores and injury news, made without betting lines or model probabilities.
- This page was written on Tuesday 22 September 2026, before the first official Week 3 injury report, which is due Wednesday 23 September.
Our pick is Jacksonville, 20–17. New England’s defense has allowed 16 points in two games, but Drake Maye has thrown four interceptions, the Patriots are minus-3 in turnovers and their offense has scored two touchdowns. Jacksonville has turned the ball over once.
When is Patriots vs Jaguars and what channel is it on?
The Patriots play the Jaguars on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 1:00 PM ET (10:00 AM PT) at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Florida. CBS has the broadcast. It streams on Paramount+ in markets where CBS carries the game, on NFL+ on phones and tablets in the local market, and on NFL Sunday Ticket out of market.
| What | Detail |
|---|---|
| Kickoff | Sun 27 Sep 2026, 1:00 PM ET / 10:00 AM PT |
| Venue | EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville (open air) |
| TV | CBS |
| Streaming | Paramount+ where CBS carries the game |
| Phones | NFL+ in the local market |
| Elsewhere | NFL Sunday Ticket (out of market) |
NBC Sports Boston (21 September) and Jaguars Wire (22 September) report that Spero Dedes, Adam Archuleta and Aditi Kinkhabwala will call the game; we have not seen that on a CBS page. We have not found CBS’s regional map either, so check whether your local CBS station is showing this game.
Is Patriots vs Jaguars in London or Jacksonville?
Jacksonville. ESPN’s schedule lists it as a Jaguars home game at EverBank Stadium. Jacksonville’s two London games this season come later: Week 5 against the Eagles at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and Week 6 against the Texans at Wembley.
The crowd will be smaller than usual. EverBank is being rebuilt, and the Jaguars said on 25 February 2026 that this season’s capacity is 42,507, including 1,260 standing-room tickets, with 27,637 seats offline. Week 1 against Cleveland drew 41,156. The team will play away from Jacksonville only in 2027, and the rebuilt stadium is due in 2028.
How have Patriots and Jaguars played so far?
Both teams are 1–1. New England lost 13–10 at Seattle in the season opener on Wednesday 9 September and beat Pittsburgh 20–3 at home on Sunday 20 September. Jacksonville beat Cleveland 34–10 at home on Sunday 13 September and lost 20–13 at Denver on Sunday 20 September.
| Date | Game | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wed 9 Sep | Patriots at Seahawks | NE lost 13–10 |
| Sun 20 Sep | Steelers at Patriots | NE won 20–3 |
| Sun 13 Sep | Browns at Jaguars | JAX won 34–10 |
| Sun 20 Sep | Jaguars at Broncos | JAX lost 20–13 |
Both teams won their divisions in 2025. New England went 14–3 and lost Super Bowl LX to Seattle, 29–13, so the opener was a rematch. Jacksonville went 13–4 and lost a Wild Card game at home to Buffalo, 27–24.
Our totals from ESPN’s box scores:
| Stat | NE | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored | 30 | 47 |
| Points allowed | 16 | 30 |
| Offensive touchdowns | 2 | 5 |
| Giveaways | 5 | 1 |
| Takeaways | 2 | 3 |
| QB TD passes / INTs | 1 / 4 | 4 / 1 |
| Sacks taken | 6 | 3 |
| Sacks made | 6 | 5 |
| Third downs converted | 9 of 28 | 10 of 22 |
| Red-zone touchdowns | 1 of 3 | 3 of 4 |
| Total yards | 604 | 628 |
| Yards allowed | 520 | 664 |
Maye went 23 of 33 for 178 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions at Seattle, then 14 of 22 for 208 yards, no touchdowns and one interception against Pittsburgh. Lawrence went 18 of 23 for 245 yards and four touchdowns against Cleveland, then 17 of 29 for 189 yards, no touchdowns and one interception at Denver.
How bad is Drake Maye’s turnover problem?
Four interceptions in two games. In our reading, that is why a team that has allowed only 16 points is 1–1. Three came at Seattle, where New England led 10–0 and lost 13–10. The last of them, by Josh Jobe in the end zone, ended a final drive that had reached the Seattle 16 with 26 seconds left, according to ESPN’s recap. Patrick Queen intercepted him against Pittsburgh, and Rhamondre Stevenson lost a fumble in the same game.
This is not how Maye played last year. ESPN’s recap of the opener said his only multi-interception game of 2025, playoffs included, was Super Bowl LX. ESPN’s preseason box scores also show that he did not throw a pass in any of New England’s three preseason games.
The offense around him has not finished drives. Its two touchdowns are Eli Raridon’s 2-yard catch at Seattle and TreVeyon Henderson’s 39-yard run against Pittsburgh. Seven of the 20 points against Pittsburgh came on Elijah Ponder’s 19-yard fumble return.
It is also thinner now. A.J. Brown has been on injured reserve since 12 September with a right ankle injury and cannot return before Week 6. Right guard Mike Onwenu was carted off in the first quarter against Pittsburgh after he was hurt on a sack of Maye. Mike Vrabel said on 21 September that he did not expect Onwenu back “in the short term.” Maye has already been sacked six times.
Is New England’s defense as good as 16 points allowed?
So far, yes. Opponents are 4 of 23 on third down, the Patriots have six sacks, and Pittsburgh managed 235 yards at 3.5 yards per play. The caution is the opposition in Week 1. Seattle’s Sam Darnold went 1 of 2 before he was hurt, and backup Drew Lock played almost all of the opener, going 16 of 22 for 187 yards.
Can Jacksonville take the ball away from Drake Maye?
It has a record of doing so. The Jaguars set franchise records with 22 interceptions and 31 takeaways in 2025, according to jaguars.com. They have three takeaways this season: a Foyesade Oluokun interception and a Josh Hines-Allen fumble recovery against Cleveland, and Jourdan Lewis’s end-zone interception at Denver.
Jacksonville has also looked after the ball better. Lawrence’s one interception is the team’s only giveaway. It was costly: the jaguars.com recap says it set up Denver’s tying touchdown, during a 17–0 run after Jacksonville led 13–3 in the third quarter. That loss ended a nine-game regular-season winning streak.
The pass rush is the open question. It had five sacks against Cleveland and none at Denver, where Bo Nix threw for 288 yards and the Broncos gained 392. Which version faces a line without Onwenu is the matchup we would watch first.
Who is injured for Patriots vs Jaguars?
There are no official Week 3 designations yet. The first report is due Wednesday 23 September, with final designations on Friday 25 September. What is settled is that A.J. Brown and Jaguars defensive end B.J. Green II are on injured reserve and will miss the game. Mike Vrabel does not expect Patriots right guard Mike Onwenu back in the short term.
| Player | Team | Status |
|---|---|---|
| WR A.J. Brown | NE | IR since 12 Sep (right ankle); earliest return 18 Oct |
| RG Mike Onwenu | NE | Ankle, carted off 20 Sep |
| LB Dre’Mont Jones | NE | Shoulder, 20 Sep; had a foot issue before it |
| S Craig Woodson | NE | Shoulder/arm; in a sling after Week 2 |
| S Dell Pettus | NE | Ankle; left Week 2 |
| TE Eli Raridon | NE | Thigh; left Week 2 early |
| CB Carlton Davis III | NE | Neck; officially Out for Week 2 |
| DE B.J. Green II | JAX | IR since 16 Sep (elbow); earliest return 18 Oct |
| WR Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX | Shoulder in Week 1; played Week 2 |
| WR Jakobi Meyers | JAX | Thumb; limited in Week 2 practice, played |
| DT DaVon Hamilton | JAX | Back, 20 Sep; returned to the game |
ESPN reported, citing initial X-rays, that Onwenu broke his ankle. The team has not confirmed that: Vrabel said Onwenu “hurt his ankle.” Greg Van Roten replaced him against Pittsburgh, and Vrabel named first-round tackle Caleb Lomu as an option at guard. Of Jones, Vrabel said he did not know how he would progress during the week. Tackle Dametrious Crownover (knee) was also Out for Week 2.
Jacksonville also has three linemen on injured reserve from before the season. Patrick Mekari and Zach Durfee were placed there with return designations on 30 August, so neither can play before Week 5. Sam Mustipher has no return designation.
What is the Patriots vs Jaguars head-to-head record?
New England leads the series 12–3: 8–2 in the regular season and 4–1 in the playoffs, according to ESPN’s schedule data. Jacksonville won the last meeting 32–16 at Wembley Stadium in London on 20 October 2024. It has never beaten New England in back-to-back meetings.
The other two Jacksonville wins were both in Jacksonville: 25–10 in the Wild Card round on 3 January 1999, and 31–20 on 16 September 2018, the last time the teams met there. In 2024, Maye went 26 of 37 for 276 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions and still lost by 16, while Tank Bigsby ran 26 times for 118 yards and two touchdowns. Jakobi Meyers, who spent four seasons in New England after going undrafted in 2019, now plays for Jacksonville and has 3 catches, 68 yards and a touchdown this season.
What is the weather forecast for Patriots vs Jaguars?
Warm and dry, for now. The National Weather Service’s 5-day forecast for EverBank Stadium, issued at 2:21 PM EDT on Tuesday 22 September, has Sunday mostly sunny with a high near 84°F, a north wind of 6 to 9 mph and a 6% chance of precipitation. EverBank has no roof, and a 5-day forecast will change before kickoff.
What is our Patriots vs Jaguars prediction?
Jaguars 20, Patriots 17. That is the site’s judgement from the box scores, injury news and head-to-head record above. It is not a model and not a betting line. We expect a low-scoring game decided by a turnover or a field goal, and on two weeks of evidence Jacksonville is the team less likely to give the ball away.
The case for Jacksonville is the gap in the stat table: plus-2 in turnovers against minus-3, 3 of 4 red-zone trips ended in touchdowns against 1 of 3, 10 of 22 on third down against 9 of 28, and a home game. New England’s offense also loses Onwenu from a line that has already allowed six sacks, and it is still without Brown.
It stays close because New England’s defense has been the best unit on the field in both of its games. Jacksonville also has something to prove from Denver, where it had no sacks, gave up 392 yards and lost after leading by 10.
What would make this prediction wrong?
A turnover-free game from Maye would do most of it. Four interceptions in two games does not match his 2025 season, and if last season is the better guide, New England’s defense may be enough on its own.
- Jacksonville’s rush repeats Denver. With no sacks again, Maye gets clean pockets despite losing Onwenu.
- The Patriots’ third-down defense holds. If Lawrence’s offense converts at anything like the 4 of 23 New England has allowed, 20 points is too many.
- The Jaguars fade again, as they did from 13–3 up at Denver.
- The injury reports turn. If Jones, Woodson, Pettus or Raridon is cleared, that helps New England. A setback for Brian Thomas Jr. or Meyers hurts Jacksonville.
What to check before kickoff
- Wednesday 23 September: the first official injury report. Watch for any IR move for Onwenu and for the practice status of Jones, Woodson, Pettus and Raridon.
- Right guard: whether Greg Van Roten or Caleb Lomu starts.
- Friday 25 September: final game-status designations.
- Sunday, about 11:30 AM ET: inactives, 90 minutes before kickoff.
- Weather and coverage: the updated NWS forecast and CBS’s coverage map for your market.
For another Week 3 preview, see our Titans vs Giants prediction .
How we verified this
✅ All four 2026 results were checked against ESPN’s box scores, then re-checked in a second pass against ESPN’s game data. Every final score and quarter-by-quarter line matched. The Patriots’ loss at Seattle was the NFL Kickoff game on Wednesday 9 September, not a Sunday game; the other three were Sunday games.
✅ The season totals in the comparison table were added up by us from the same box scores: giveaways, takeaways, third downs, red-zone trips, sacks and yardage. They are sums of two games, and two games is a small sample.
⚠️ No official Week 3 injury designations existed when this page was written. The first report for Sunday games is due Wednesday 23 September. The “Questionable” tags on ESPN’s game page are ESPN’s own status labels, not team designations, and this page does not treat them as official. The report that Mike Onwenu broke his ankle comes from ESPN’s Mike Reiss, citing initial X-rays; the team has not confirmed it, and Mike Vrabel said only that Onwenu “hurt his ankle.” Reports calling the injury season-ending are not confirmed by the team either. No Onwenu IR move appeared on the patriots.com transactions page through 19 September, the latest date we could see.
✅ A.J. Brown’s IR date and return week were corrected by a second check against the patriots.com transactions page. Our first research had him placed on IR on 10 September. That was NFL.com reporting the planned move; the move itself is dated Saturday 12 September. The first research also recorded a conflict between a Week 5 and a Week 6 return. There is none: NFL.com listed Week 5 as the last game he must miss, and patriots.com gives his earliest return as Week 6 against the Jets on 18 October.
✅ The Jaguars’ injured-reserve moves were confirmed on the jaguars.com transactions page after our first research had only ESPN’s listing: B.J. Green II on 16 September with a return designation, Patrick Mekari and Zach Durfee on 30 August with return designations, and Sam Mustipher without one.
⚠️ One injury description was dropped because the second check could not confirm it against Vrabel’s transcript. A secondhand summary said Eli Raridon’s thigh injury did not look serious. Vrabel’s 21 September transcript says only that Raridon came out of the game early, so this page says only that.
✅ The series record was checked against ESPN’s team-schedule data because Pro Football Reference blocked access. ESPN separates regular-season and playoff games and gives New England a 12–3 lead, 8–2 and 4–1. The game-by-game list used first, from StatMuse, labels the January 2006 Wild Card game as a regular-season game; it is counted here as a playoff game.
⚠️ The CBS broadcast crew comes from two outlets, NBC Sports Boston and Jaguars Wire, not from a CBS page. We did not find CBS’s regional coverage map, and we did not check which Paramount+ tier carries live CBS games.
✅ Stadium capacity is from the Jaguars’ own 25 February 2026 release, and the weather is the National Weather Service point forecast for the stadium, issued at 2:21 PM EDT on 22 September. That is a 5-day forecast, and it will change.
🔴 No betting lines, sportsbook favorite or underdog labels, prediction-market prices or model win probabilities, ESPN’s FPI included, were consulted for this page, and none appear on it. The pick is our judgement from the box scores, injury news and head-to-head record shown here, and the case against it is stated.