Hurricane Polo: Current Path, Strength, and What's Expected in Baja California

Hurricane Polo has weakened to a Category 3 storm but remains on track to reach Baja California Sur as a hurricane, with landfall expected Monday, September 28, 2026. As of the National Hurricane Center’s advisory issued at 5 a.m. MST Sunday, September 27, 2026, Polo was centered roughly 285 miles west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, moving north-northwest with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph — a sharp drop from the Category 5 peak it reached days earlier as one of the most intense Pacific hurricanes ever recorded. Here’s where the storm stands as of Sunday morning, what forecasters expect next, and what it means for Baja California Sur and the Southern California coast.

Where is Hurricane Polo right now?

As of the National Hurricane Center’s 5 a.m. MST advisory on Sunday, September 27, 2026, Polo was located near 20.7°N, 113.7°W, about 285 miles west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas. The storm was moving north-northwest near 10 mph, with a turn toward the north expected later Sunday and a shift to the northeast forecast for Monday as it closes in on the Baja California peninsula. Maximum sustained winds stood at 120 mph with a central pressure of 952 millibars, placing Polo at Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale — still a major hurricane, even well down from its peak.

When and where will Polo make landfall?

The National Hurricane Center forecasts Polo to approach the west coast of Baja California Sur on Monday, September 28, cross the peninsula Monday night, and reach northwestern mainland Mexico, including the state of Sonora, by early Tuesday, September 29. Hurricane warnings were in effect Sunday for both coasts of Baja California Sur. Forecasters expect gradual weakening as Polo nears land but say it should still arrive as a strong hurricane. Some non-official travel-advisory summaries have floated further weakening to Category 1 by landfall; we’re following the National Hurricane Center’s own advisory language here, since it is the official forecasting authority for this storm, and its latest bulletin still calls for a strong hurricane at landfall.

How strong was Polo at its peak?

At its peak on Tuesday, September 22, Polo reached Category 5 strength with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph and a central pressure of 892 millibars — the second-most intense Pacific hurricane on record by pressure, behind only 2015’s Hurricane Patricia. Polo formed on September 20 and reached Category 5 strength within about two days, a pace meteorologists described as an “explosively rapid intensification,” driven by weak wind shear, unusually warm ocean water, and a moist, unstable atmosphere. It was the 2026 Pacific season’s 18th named storm, seventh hurricane, and fifth major hurricane — and, at Category 5, it tied a season record as the third storm this year to reach that top category, after Genevieve and Lowell.

What impacts is Baja California Sur expecting?

The National Hurricane Center’s biggest concern is rainfall: 4 to 8 inches across Baja California Sur, with isolated totals up to 10 inches, capable of producing life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in steep terrain. Rain was expected to begin Sunday night and continue into Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds were forecast to reach the peninsula’s west coast by Monday afternoon and spread to the east coast by Monday evening, alongside dangerous storm surge and large, damaging waves along exposed coastlines. The U.S. Embassy in Mexico issued a security alert urging American travelers in the Baja California peninsula and Sonora to review evacuation routes and follow instructions from local authorities.

Will Hurricane Polo affect Southern California?

Yes — even without making landfall in the United States, Polo is expected to push elevated surf, strong rip currents, and coastal flooding into Southern California beaches into midweek. Beach hazard statements cover the Southern California coast, with San Diego County expecting surf of 3 to 5 feet, with sets to 6 feet, and Los Angeles and Ventura counties forecast to see 4- to 7-foot surf Monday and Tuesday. High tides climbing from around 6 feet Sunday to roughly 7 feet Monday through Wednesday raise the risk of coastal flooding and beach erosion, and a coastal flood advisory covers Orange and San Diego counties into Wednesday.

What should residents and travelers do now?

Anyone in Baja California Sur, Sonora, or along the Southern California coast should follow official guidance rather than any single forecast track, since Polo’s exact strength and timing can still shift with each new advisory. The National Hurricane Center updates its forecast every six hours, and the U.S. Embassy in Mexico has published its own alert for American citizens in the storm’s path. On the U.S. side, the safest approach through Wednesday is simply to stay out of the water at Southern California beaches during posted high-surf and rip-current warnings, even on days that look calm from the sand.

Polo is a live storm, and its track, intensity, and landfall timing can still change with the next advisory — check the National Hurricane Center’s latest bulletin before making travel or safety decisions tied to Baja California Sur or the Southern California coast this week. For a look at how differently an Eastern Pacific storm can play out, our recap of Tropical Storm Dolly , which fell apart within 48 hours the same season, is a useful contrast to how far Polo has gone in the other direction.