El Niño Snow Forecast 2026–27: Where the U.S. Could See More and Less Snow
- There is no official snow forecast for this winter, from NOAA or anyone else. What exists is a record of what past El Niño winters did, and NOAA’s flagship Winter Outlook — issued in autumn — covers temperature and precipitation, not snowfall totals.
- NOAA’s own conclusion from that record is that El Niño suppresses snow across more of North America than it adds to. Its phrase, from an analysis of 1959–2023, is that it appears to be the great snowfall suppressor over most of the continent.
- The gains cluster in the Southwest, the southern Rockies and the high country of California, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona, plus the high plains, the Mid-Atlantic and the southern Appalachians.
- The losses run from the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies across the Great Lakes to interior New England, and cover most of Alaska. On 13 August the Climate Prediction Center put a very strong event above 90% — but a stronger El Niño does not reliably mean more snow.
There is no snow forecast for this winter. NOAA does not publish one, and neither does anyone else who can be checked.
What does exist is a record of what happened in past El Niño winters — and NOAA’s summary of that record is that El Niño takes snow away from more of North America than it gives it to.
Where could the U.S. see more or less snow?
The gains are narrow and mostly high up; the losses are broad and northern.
| Region | Signal in past El Niño winters |
|---|---|
| Sierra Nevada and Southwest | Above average |
| Southern Rockies | Above average |
| High plains — eastern Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas, northern Texas | Above average |
| Mid-Atlantic | Above average |
| Southern Appalachians — West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina | Above average |
| Pacific Northwest | Below average |
| Northern Rockies | Below average |
| Great Lakes | Below average |
| Interior New England | Below average |
| Most of Alaska | Below average |
NOAA’s 1950–2009 analysis puts the largest positive departures in California, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona — the high country reached by the subtropical jet, where the extra moisture stays frozen.
Five entries on each side is not a 50-50 split. NOAA’s finding from the longer 1959–2023 record is that the below-average area is larger than the above-average area, which is why its summary sentence is about suppression rather than balance.
Is there an official snow forecast for this winter?
No — and this is the part most coverage gets wrong.
| Product | What it actually gives you | When |
|---|---|---|
| ENSO Diagnostic Discussion | El Niño strength and probabilities | Monthly — next on 10 September |
| CPC Winter Outlook | Temperature and precipitation probabilities | Autumn |
| A national seasonal snowfall map | Does not exist | — |
Even the flagship Winter Outlook, the one whose maps circulate every October, forecasts temperature and precipitation, not snowfall totals. Seasonal snowfall is not something NOAA issues as a national forecast. So an article promising how many inches your state will get this winter is working from something other than a NOAA forecast.
What did NOAA just say about El Niño’s strength?
Very strong is close to settled. Record-breaking is likely but not certain.
| CPC figure, 13 August 2026 | Value |
|---|---|
| Alert status | El Niño Advisory |
| Very strong event, autumn–winter | Greater than 90% |
| Historic event, October–December | 69% |
| Niño-3.4 index, July | +1.4 °C |
The synopsis reads that El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter 2026-27. The 69% figure is the probability that October to December exceeds every El Niño back to 1950.
The gap between those two numbers — about 21 points — is the part still open. It is not whether this is a big event. It is how big.
Does a stronger El Niño mean more snow?
No, and NOAA says so directly.
The composites are averages of past events, and NOAA warns that stronger events do not reliably produce stronger impacts. The most recent very strong El Niño inverted part of the expected west-coast pattern, which is exactly the kind of thing a composite of twenty-odd events cannot rule out.
A record-strength event is a reason to expect an unusual winter. It is not a reason to expect a snowier one, and for most of the northern tier the historical lean runs the other way.
Why can a wetter winter be a less snowy one?
Because snow needs the moisture and the cold in the same place, and El Niño moves them apart.
El Niño pulls the subtropical jet north and east across the southern United States. That wets the southern tier, and it weakens the northern storm track, which dries the north. Snow follows only where the wetter air is also cold enough — which is why the gains cluster in high country and the Mid-Atlantic, and why a wetter-than-normal winter in the Southeast can still be a nearly snowless one.
What this article cannot tell you
How much snow will fall where you live. No total for any location appears on this page, because no defensible source produces one at this range.
It also cannot tell you whether this winter behaves like the composite at all. The sample is thin, the last very strong event broke part of the pattern, and the drivers that decide any individual month are not predictable months ahead.
For the temperature side of the same winter, see our 2026/2027 US winter forecast . For what happens to the event after it peaks, we looked at the decay year .
Sources
| Source | What it supports here |
|---|---|
| NOAA Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion | The 13 August 2026 alert status, the greater-than-90% and 69% probabilities, the July Niño-3.4 value, and the 10 September date for the next discussion |
| NOAA Climate.gov: S(no)w pain, S(no)w gain — how does El Niño affect snowfall over North America? | The 1959–2023 composite, the “great snowfall suppressor” conclusion, and the regional pattern of above- and below-average snow |
| NOAA Climate.gov: Snow during El Niños from 1950 to 2009 | The largest positive departures being in California, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona |
Checked 18 August 2026. This article contains no snowfall totals and no seasonal snow prediction. No affiliate links, and no payment was received for any link on this page.
How we verified this
The single most important thing on this page is that no snow forecast exists. NOAA does not issue a national seasonal snowfall map. Its flagship Winter Outlook, published in autumn, forecasts temperature and precipitation probabilities. Any article giving a snowfall total for a state this winter is not working from a NOAA forecast, and this page prints no totals for anywhere.
The regional pattern comes from NOAA’s own composites, and is labelled as a retrospective throughout. The 1959–2023 analysis, based on ERA5 data and published by NOAA Climate.gov, compares snowfall in El Niño winters against the 1991–2020 average. A separate Climate.gov analysis covering 1950–2009 is the source for the largest positive departures being in California, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona. Both describe what happened in past events. Neither is a prediction of this one.
The strength figures are from the Climate Prediction Center discussion issued 13 August 2026, read on the CPC’s own page: alert status El Niño Advisory, greater than 90% chance of a very strong event for autumn and winter 2026-27, and a 69% chance that October–December exceeds every El Niño back to 1950. The next discussion is scheduled for 10 September 2026, and those numbers can move.
The chart shows five regions on each side, and that is not the same as a 50-50 split. NOAA’s finding is that the below-average area is larger than the above-average area. The chart’s own footnote says so, because five bullets against five bullets would otherwise read as a balance that the underlying maps do not show.
This page replaces an earlier one on the same subject. The previous version, published 13 August, carried the same NOAA sources and the same conclusions; this one is organised around where the snow goes, adds the source table the earlier page lacked, and the old URL redirects here.
Nothing here forecasts snowfall, and nothing here says this winter will resemble the composite. Twenty-odd events is a thin sample, the most recent very strong event inverted the expected west-coast pattern, and the drivers that dominate any individual month — the Madden-Julian Oscillation, the polar vortex — are not predictable at this range.