Chiefs vs Dolphins Prediction: The Super Bowl MVP Meets the One Part of Miami That Works

Our pick is Kansas City 27, Miami 16. The reason that matters is Kenneth Walker III, the Super Bowl LX MVP now in Chiefs red and leading the NFL in rushing, running into the one part of Miami’s rebuilt roster that has held up: a run defense allowing 3.5 yards a carry. If that unit holds, Kansas City still has the other half of the matchup, because Miami has taken nine sacks and made none.

When is Chiefs vs Dolphins and what channel is it on?

Sunday 27 September 2026 at 1:00 PM ET (10:00 AM PT, noon in Kansas City), at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, on CBS.

It is Miami’s home opener after two games in the Pacific time zone. It is also Kansas City’s first road game and first daytime kickoff of 2026: the Chiefs opened on Monday Night Football and then played Sunday Night Football, which went to overtime. CBS is expected to assign Kevin Harlan and Trent Green, per Yahoo Sports; neither CBS nor either team had confirmed the crew by 22 September.

How have the Chiefs and Dolphins played so far?

Kansas City is 2-0 after beating Denver 31-10 and Indianapolis 33-30 in overtime, both at Arrowhead. Miami is 0-2 after losing 27-13 at Las Vegas and 35-13 at San Francisco. The Chiefs have outscored opponents 64-40; the Dolphins have been outscored 62-26.

The two-game totals below come from the ESPN box scores.

Patrick Mahomes, nine months after surgery on his left knee, is 47 of 74 for 566 yards, five touchdowns and one interception, and he ran in a 15-yard touchdown against Denver. Travis Kelce has 12 catches for 172 yards. Malik Willis, who replaced the released Tua Tagovailoa in March, is 29 of 50 for 417 yards, one touchdown and one interception, and he was Miami’s leading rusher in Week 1. Miami has scored exactly 13 points in both games, and the Miami Herald reported that kicker Riley Patterson has missed a field goal in each.

How did Kenneth Walker III end up on the Chiefs?

Walker signed a three-year contract with Kansas City after being named MVP of Super Bowl LX with the Seattle Seahawks, a game in which he ran for 135 yards in a 29-13 win over the New England Patriots, according to NFL.com and CBS Sports. Two games into his Chiefs career, he has 290 rushing yards on 47 carries, 6.2 a carry, which Yahoo Sports reports is the most in the NFL.

The yardage comes straight from the box scores: 173 yards on 23 carries against Denver, including a 60-yard run and a touchdown, then 117 on 24 against Indianapolis. Add nine catches for 79 yards and a receiving touchdown and he has 369 yards from scrimmage.

He is the centerpiece of a reload. Kansas City went 6-11 in 2025 and missed the playoffs. Eric Bieniemy is back as offensive coordinator, Isiah Pacheco is gone, and the Chiefs have run for 372 yards at 5.6 a carry while holding the ball for 33:42 and 37:00.

Can Miami’s run defense slow Kenneth Walker III?

On two games of evidence, that is the one thing Miami does well. The Dolphins have allowed 225 rushing yards on 64 carries, 3.5 a carry, and held Ashton Jeanty to 102 yards on 23 carries in Week 1. Walker is averaging 6.2, so one of those numbers has to give.

The problem is everything behind the run defense. Kirk Cousins and Brock Purdy completed 41 of 52 passes against Miami for 447 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions. Purdy went 20 of 22, and San Francisco scored 21 points in the third quarter alone. Opponents are 8 for 9 in the red zone. Neither team needed to lean on the run to score, so we treat the 3.5 figure as real but lightly tested.

Our read is that Walker does not need another 173 yards for Kansas City to win. If Miami crowds the line to stop him, Mahomes throws against a secondary that has allowed a 79% completion rate. If Miami plays him straight, Walker lets the Chiefs keep the ball in the heat and keeps Willis on the sideline.

Why is Miami’s pass protection the other problem?

Because it is the widest gap in the game: Willis has been sacked nine times for 50 yards in two games, five at Las Vegas and four at San Francisco, and Miami’s own defense has not sacked anyone. Kansas City had four sacks against Denver and none against Indianapolis, so the Chiefs’ rush is not a given either.

Jeff Hafley, hired in January from the Packers’ defensive-coordinator job, said after the San Francisco loss that his blitzes had produced no pressure and “it hasn’t worked in the first two games,” the Miami Herald reported. On 22 September Miami signed edge rusher Andre Jones Jr. off Buffalo’s practice squad.

Willis is dangerous when he gets time: 8.1 and 8.6 yards per attempt, and a 77-yard touchdown to Ryan Miller. Hafley called him “extremely accurate” on 21 September and said consistency is the issue. On the other side, Kansas City’s left tackle is the undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson, starting for the injured Josh Simmons, and Mahomes has been sacked four times.

Who is injured for Chiefs vs Dolphins?

No one has an official Week 3 designation yet. The first injury reports are due on Wednesday 23 September and final game statuses on Friday 25 September, with inactives about 90 minutes before kickoff. As of 22 September, Kansas City is still missing its starting left tackle, and Miami’s top edge rusher is in the concussion protocol.

ESPN’s team injury pages already tag some players “Questionable”. Those are ESPN’s labels, not designations from the teams.

Chiefs

• LT Josh Simmons (back) was inactive for both games, per the team’s inactive lists. Pro Football Talk reported that Reid said on 21 September he is “doing everything” and that the team had expected a two-to-four-game absence.
• CB Mansoor Delane (shoulder), the No. 6 overall pick, was hurt returning an interception in Week 1. He was listed Questionable for Week 2 and was active; Pro Football Talk and AtoZ Sports reported he did not play.
• DB Chamarri Conner (knee) was inactive for both games; Jaden Hicks has started.
• DT Chris Jones (calf) was Questionable in Week 2 and played.
• Chiefs.com said the team came out of Week 2 with “a clean bill of health”. Mahomes practiced fully all last week with no game designation.

Dolphins

• Edge Chop Robinson (concussion, sustained in practice) missed Week 2. Hafley said on 21 September that “he has made progress” and that the team would see how he does on Wednesday, according to the Dolphins’ transcript.
• WR Caleb Douglas (ankle), the rookie who had 94 yards in Week 1, left Week 2. Hafley said it was “too early to tell” whether he plays.
• RB Jaylen Wright left Week 2 in the first half; Hafley called him day-to-day. ESPN’s recap described a stinger; Hafley did not name the injury.
• On injured reserve: LB Ronnie Harrison Jr., S Kyle Louis, and DL Kenneth Grant and edge Trey Moore (both designated to return). CBs Storm Duck and Darrell Baker Jr. are on the PUP list.

Who has won recent Chiefs vs Dolphins games?

Kansas City has won the last five meetings, most recently 26-7 in the AFC Wild Card round at Arrowhead on Saturday 13 January 2024. Miami’s last win was 31-3 at Arrowhead on 6 November 2011. The Chiefs lead the all-time series 17-16 and the regular season 16-13; Miami leads 3-1 in the playoffs.

The streak runs through 2014, 2017, 2020, a 21-14 Chiefs win in Frankfurt on 5 November 2023, and that playoff game. The last meeting in Miami, on 13 December 2020, was a 33-27 Chiefs win in which Mahomes threw for 393 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions.

History says little about this Miami team. Mike McDaniel, Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have all left since the last meeting.

What is the weather forecast for Chiefs vs Dolphins?

Hot, with a chance of storms. In a five-day forecast issued at 2:32 PM EDT on 22 September, the National Weather Service’s Miami office calls for a mostly sunny Sunday with a high near 86 and a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8 a.m. The wind should be from the northeast at 5-8 mph. Hard Rock Stadium is open-air; its canopy shades the seats, not the field.

The forecast gives no heat index or humidity for Sunday, so we don’t quote one, and it will change before kickoff.

What is our Chiefs vs Dolphins prediction?

Chiefs 27, Dolphins 16. That is our judgement, argued from the box scores, the injury news and the head-to-head record. It is not a betting line or a model’s win probability; we consulted neither.

• Scoring: Kansas City has scored 31 and 33 and turned the ball over once. Miami has scored 13 twice, is 1 for 5 in the red zone and has missed a field goal in each game.
• Protection: nine sacks taken against none made is the clearest edge in the game, even with a rookie at the Chiefs’ left tackle.
• Walker: if Miami’s run defense holds, Kansas City still has a passing game that put up 382 yards on Indianapolis. If it doesn’t, the Chiefs control the clock.
• Why not a blowout: it is Miami’s home opener after two West Coast trips, the run defense is sound, the Chiefs allowed 30 to the Colts, and this is their first road game and first early kickoff, a week after an overtime Sunday-night game.

What would make this prediction wrong?

A Miami pass rush that finally reaches Mahomes. The Dolphins have no sacks in two games; if Chop Robinson clears the protocol and pressure gets through a rookie left tackle, the gap this pick rests on closes.

• Miami’s run defense holds Walker near 3.5 a carry, and Kansas City has to win by throwing in the heat.
• Heat or a storm delay at a 1 PM kickoff wears down a Chiefs defense that gave up 30 to Indianapolis.
• Willis’s big plays turn into touchdowns instead of field-goal attempts.
• Kansas City’s turnover luck ends. One giveaway in two games is unlikely to last, and Mahomes threw three interceptions in his last game in Miami.
• Mahomes has a knee setback, or Simmons and Delane stay out longer than the Chiefs expect.

What should you check before kickoff?

The three injury reports this week, the CBS coverage map, and Sunday’s inactives and forecast.

• Wednesday 23 September: whether Simmons practices, whether Robinson is still in the protocol, and CBS’s regional map.
• Friday 25 September: final designations for Delane, Robinson, Douglas and Wright.
• About 11:30 AM ET Sunday: the inactive lists.
• Sunday morning: the updated NWS forecast for storms at Miami Gardens.